Stef’s market update – March 2026 – tax changes and global pressure points shaping the year ahead

There is a lot for business owners to take in this year. On the tax side alone, the picture is changing in several places at once and it will start to feed through into cash flow and planning over the next 12 months.

Allowances and thresholds remain frozen which quietly increases the tax burden over time. From April 2026, Making Tax Digital will bring new reporting duties for sole traders and landlords adding admin and cost. Dividend tax is also set to rise, which will affect how many owners choose to draw income.

Property owners face further change with separate tax treatment for property income and the end of furnished holiday lettings. ISA reforms are expected and there is talk of more change to Business Asset Disposal Relief. New inheritance tax rules are also on the radar which could shape longer term planning for many family businesses.

Alongside this, there are wider global factors starting to move. At a recent breakfast with a high street bank, the Iran conflict came up and the tone was cautious. So far, the direct impact on UK firms has been limited, but there are signs of pressure building.

Energy prices have already jumped, with oil moving past $110 a barrel at points. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk, given how much global supply passes through it. Supply chains are also starting to feel strain, particularly in sectors linked to agriculture, where fertiliser flows are affected.

Markets have reacted with a dip in the FTSE 100 and there is growing concern around inflation. Higher energy costs are feeding through and banks have already started to hold back on planned rate cuts.

Put together, it creates a more cautious backdrop. For many firms, the focus now is on staying flexible. Funding structures that worked a year ago may not feel right today. With tax rising in places and costs under pressure, having the right mix of funding and enough headroom will matter more than ever.